Recent Gallup Poll Shows Waning Support for Left-Greens

Alþingishúsið
If parliamentary elections were held today, the Left-Green Movement could stand to lose support and even their representation in Alþingi, Iceland’s parliament. This is stated in a recent Gallup poll, as reported by RÚV. 

The Social Democratic Alliance currently rates as the most popular party, with 30% support.

Could fall below critical threshold

The most significant changes recorded by the Gallup poll include a slight decrease in support for both the Left-Greens and the People’s Party, both losing around 1% support. The People’s Party recorded 6.1% support according to the poll. Significantly however, the Left-Greens only polled at 3.3% support. If an election were held today, this might mean that the party, which is currently in a governing coalition, could fall below the 5% threshold for parliamentary representation.

Social Democratic Alliance polls best

If an election were held today and parties received results proportional the recent poll, the Social Democratic Alliance, currently polling highest, would receive 21 seats. The centre-right Independence Party, polling in second place at 18% support, would receive 12 MPs.

The Centre Party recorded 13.5% support and would receive 9 MPs, while the Progressive Party and Pirate Party both polled around 9% and would both receive 6 MPs. The Liberal Reform Party saw 7.7% support and would receive 5 seats, while the Icelandic Socialist Party would receive 3.7% of votes and no seats.

In total, Alþingi has 63 parliamentary seats. The poll also recorded only 29% support for the current governing coalition.

RÚV reports that the poll was carried out between April 30 and June 2. The sample size was some 12,731 individuals, of which 50.2% responded.

Prime Minister Reflects on Poor Polling

Katrín Jakobsdóttir Bjarni Benediktsson Sigurður Ingi Ráðherra

Prime Minister Katrín Jakobsdóttir, leader of the Left-Green Movement, told RÚV today that low poll numbers should cause the party’s leadership as a whole to reflect on their position. The party is polling at 4.7% in Gallup’s latest poll, their worst numbers since the turn of the century, and would likely not get a single MP elected to Alþingi, Iceland’s Parliament, if this were to be the outcome in an election.

Two terms in a broad coalition

The Left-Green Movement formed a coalition government with the conservative Independence Party and the centrist Progressive Party in 2017. The coalition continued after the 2021 election, despite Katrín’s party losing three seats in Alþingi. The party has been criticised by both current and former members for conceding too many of their policy objectives and making compromises with their coalition partners.

At a party council meeting this weekend, Katrín emphasised that everyone in the leadership, including herself, should consider their position. She told RÚV, however, that she was not quitting as party leader. “But I think it’s prudent when the polls are like this, and it would be irresponsible not to do so, to consider our position and that goes for me and others in the Movement’s leadership.”

Better communication

“I don’t think this poll reflects the success we’ve had in leading a coalition government through challenging times,” Katrín said, admitting that previous poll numbers have also been unfavourable. “It should make all of us in the Movement consider what we’re doing. It’s also necessary to better communicate the success we’ve been able to achieve.”

Katrín added that she believes that the Left-Green Movement still has an important place in Icelandic politics and that she hopes for an upswing. “I wouldn’t have been in politics for 20 years without being an optimistic person,” she said.

Support for PM’s Left-Greens Hits Near-Decade Low

According to a new Gallup poll, support for the government continues to decline. Countrywide support for the Prime Minister’s Left-Greens hasn’t been lower since the lead up to the 2013 Parliamentary elections.

Criticism over deportation of asylum seekers

A new Gallup poll (“Pulse of the Nation”) indicates that Prime Minister Katrín Jakobsdóttir’s Left-Green Movement has lost more than a third of its support since the last Parliamentary elections. The poll was conducted between May 2 and May 31. The Left-Greens saw the most significant decline since the previous poll was conducted; the party has recently been criticised over plans to deport an inordinate number of asylum seekers.

Only 8.1% of respondents stated that they would vote for the Left-Green Movement if elections were held now, which is two percentage points lower when compared to the last poll – and 4.5% less than the Left-Green Movement received during the previous elections. Support for the party hasn’t been lower in nine years, RÚV reports.

Support for the People’s Party has also declined compared to the previous Parliamentary elections (although the numbers have remained nearly unchanged since the last poll); 6.4% of respondents said that they would vote for the People’s Party, compared to 8% in the last poll. The party made headlines after screenshots of obscene text messages from MP Tómas A. Tómasson made the rounds on the internet. Chairman Inga Sæland subsequently stated that the party would “stand by” Tómas and that the controversy would not affect his role as MP.

The Independence Party still the most popular

The Independence Party remains the most popular political party nationwide, according to the poll, with just over 20% of respondents declaring support. These numbers suggest decreased support from the last Parliamentary elections, however, where the Independence Party received 24.4% of the vote.

Fresh off of successful municipal elections, the Progressive Party continues to enjoy increased backing since the last Gallup poll. The party stands out among the governing coalition as it appears not to have lost support from the previous elections (17.5%).

The three governing parties are now polling at roughly 44%, which is about three percentage points lower than last month.

Continued support for the opposition

The three largest opposition parties have all gained support from the last Parliamentary elections: the Pirate Party is polling at 14.7%, the Social Democratic Alliance at 14.1%, and the Reform Party at 9.5%.

The Socialist Party is polling at 5% and the Centre Party at 4.3%. Over 7% were unwilling to specify support for one political party over another, and 8% stated that they would not vote or cast an empty ballot.