Iceland’s Chief Epidemiologist Þórólfur Guðnason told Kjarninn that imposing COVID-19 restrictions in Iceland now would have limited effect on the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. The currently dominant variant, BA.5, is more contagious than the omicron variant, and a newer variant that is emerging elsewhere in the world, BA.2.75, appears to be still more contagious. Very strict measures would be needed to prevent the spread of these varieties, and their success would be far from guaranteed.
Most re-infections among those who caught the virus early
COVID reinfections in Iceland are by far most common among those who were infected early in the pandemic: before the Omicron variant became widespread. The reinfection rate among people who were infected with the Omicron variant is under 1%. Þórólfur says this could change, however, with the arrival of new variants that could be evading previous immunity. The Chief Epidemiologist noted that in almost all cases, reinfections have been milder than the initial infection.
The Chief Epidemiologist observed that likely neither the Icelandic public nor the government is likely to welcome restrictions at this time, but luckily the COVID-19 situation in Iceland has been relatively stable. Around 30 people in Iceland are in hospital due to a COVID-19 infection, most infected for the first time, and one or two of them in the ICU.
Þórólfur expressed his hope that immunity against COVID-19 would continue to build up and infection rates and rates of serious illness would begin to decrease soon. Iceland’s herd immunity is already very high, he added, and fourth doses are not recommended except for at-risk groups.
