It will not be possible to form a three-party majority government after the upcoming election, according to a projection published by Morgunblaðið newspaper today. The projection is built on three recent election polls from MMR. According to the polls, nine parties are polling high enough to win at least one seat in the election. Among these parties, seven four-party coalitions are possible and eight five-party coalitions. To form a majority coalition, parties needs at least 32 of Alþingi’s 63 seats, though preferably more.
Iceland’s current government is a three-party coalition between the Left-Green Movement, Independence Party, and Progressive Party. The upcoming parliamentary election will be held this Saturday, September 25, and if the aforementioned projection proves true, the Parliament is in for some changes. Morgunblaðið projects the following seat distribution, with parties listed from the right to the left of the political spectrum, according to the newspaper’s ranking:
Independence Party: 15
Progressive Party: 9
Centre Party: 3
Reform Party: 7
People’s Party: 3
Social-Democratic Alliance: 8
Left-Green Movement: 7
Pirate Party: 6
Socialist Party: 5
Independence and Progressive Parties key for coalition
The most likely four-party coalitions, according to the projection, all include both the Independence Party and the Progressive Party, both of which are in the current governing coalition. A more left-leaning government is possible, though it would require at least five parties and would also require collaboration with the Progressive Party. The party’s members have stated that they are not opposed to collaboration with left-leaning parties. Of the seven four-party coalitions, the centrist Reform Party is included in five of them.
It bears noting that projections are only a forecast and many differing election outcomes are possible.