COVID-19 in Iceland: Randomise Vaccination to Achieve Herd Immunity Sooner Skip to content
Photo: deCODE genetics. Kári Stefánsson presenting the results of a study on vaccination against COVID-19 on April 29, 2021.

COVID-19 in Iceland: Randomise Vaccination to Achieve Herd Immunity Sooner

When Icelandic authorities finishing vaccination of priority groups, the general public will not be offered the jab by descending age groups, but will instead be randomly selected. Iceland’s Chief Epidemiologist confirmed this to mbl.is today. A recently published study from deCODE genetics found that this strategy would achieve herd immunity to COVID-19 sooner than vaccinating the population from oldest to youngest.

So far 29.89% of Iceland’s population have received one or both shots of COVID-19 vaccine. While vaccination efforts got off to a slow start on December 29, they have accelerated in pace with vaccine rollout. Icelandic authorities have stated they are on target to reach their goal of vaccinating 75% of the population (with at least one dose) by the end of July.

Priority Group Seven Out of Ten Now Being Vaccinated

In Iceland, COVID-19 vaccines have been administered according to priority groups defined by the Chief Epidemiologist. The first groups were front line healthcare workers and nursing home residents, followed by the oldest demographics. Currently, inoculations are being offered to the seventh priority group: individuals of all ages with chronic illnesses. The remaining three groups are school and welfare service staff; individuals vulnerable due to social or economic factors (such as homelessness); and the general population. These groups will not be invited to inoculation in descending age groups, but randomly.

“It will be somewhat random in relation to age,” Chief Epidemiologist Þórólfur Guðnason stated. “It will also be like that when for example teachers and people in social services are called in; it won’t be divided by age groups, it won’t go down from the oldest demographic, rather it will be somewhat random. We will try to hit two birds with one stone, that is to say to reach prioritised individuals and at the same time work toward herd immunity as well as possible.”

Herd Immunity Reached Sooner By Vaccinating Young People First

A study conducted by deCODE and presented to Icelandic authorities on April 29 concluded that herd immunity would be reached fastest in Iceland if the age groups who have yet to receive vaccination would be invited from youngest to oldest, in the opposite order from what Iceland, and most other countries, have been doing.

Katrín Jakobsdóttir COVID-19 mask
deCODE genetics. Prime Minister Katrín Jakobsdóttir and other government ministers at the presentation of a deCODE study on vaccination against COVID-19, April 29, 2021.

Vaccinating younger people would limit the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus more than vaccinating older groups. “In order to limit the epidemic to 100 people (assuming strict gathering regulations remained in place) we would have to vaccinate 75% of adults,” stated Páll Melsted, one of the scientists behind the study. “But if we start by vaccinating teenagers then we get to that point after vaccinating 55%. If we are going to get to that point sooner, we should start with those who are younger. We also achieve a similar goal if we do it completely randomly. Well, maybe it would be better politically to vaccinate both downwards and randomly, but I don’t intent to promote that.”

DeCODE CEO Kári Stefánsson warned against lifting restrictions quickly before herd immunity was achieved. “I think we should stick to the restrictions and be more Catholic than the Pope for a few more weeks and then we’ll come out of this well,” he stated.

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