Iceland’s population reached 388,790 in the third quarter of 2024, with foreign nationals accounting for 17.3% of the total. Earlier this year, Statistics Iceland implemented a new methodology for population estimation, revealing that the January 1, 2024, population had been overestimated by 15,245 individuals.
A refined methodology
Statistics Iceland introduced a new method for population estimation in March 2024, with time series data – data that is recorded over consistent intervals of time – updated retrospectively from 2011 onwards.
“Previously, population estimates relied solely on official residency registration with Registers Iceland. The new approach incorporates a broader range of public data, including tax records and student registries, alongside data from Registers Iceland,” an article published on Statistics Iceland’s website this week notes.
In a report documenting this change published earlier this year, Statistics Iceland noted that the upshot of this refined methodology was that, as of January 1, 2024, Iceland’s population was approximately 15,245 fewer than previously estimated under the older method. (Statistics Iceland had previously estimated Iceland’s population at 398,971 as of January 1).
This overestimation is largely attributable to incentives.
“The main reason for the discrepancy between the number of individuals registered as residents in Iceland and the estimated population is that while there is a strong incentive to register residency with the National Registry upon moving to Iceland – such as to obtain a national ID number, access the labour market, open a bank account, and utilise healthcare, education, and social systems – there is little to no incentive to report emigration. As a result, many people have left the country without notifying the National Registry of their departure.”
According to figures from the third quarter of this year, Statistics Iceland estimates that 388,790 people live in Iceland, which is significantly lower than the estimate published by Registers Iceland, which currently records 405,907 individuals residing in Iceland.
Foreign nationals 17.3% of the population
As noted by Statistics Iceland, of the total 388,790 individuals residing in Iceland, there are 199,340 men, 189,250 women, and 190 identifying as non-binary or other genders.
The population increased by 1,820 between the beginning of July and the end of September of this year. 1,130 births were recorded, while 630 individuals passed away.
Of the total population, 248,190 resided in the capital region, while 140,600 lived in rural areas.
Foreign nationals accounted for 67,330 individuals, or 17.3% of the total population.
During the same period, net migration was positive, with 1,300 more individuals moving to Iceland than leaving. Among Icelandic citizens, there was a net loss of 140 due to emigration, while foreign nationals saw a net gain of 1,430. More men than women left the country during the quarter.
