Poll Suggests Collapse in Progressive Party Support Skip to content

Poll Suggests Collapse in Progressive Party Support

By Iceland Review

Iceland’s ruling Progressive Party would lose 15 of its current 19 MPs if an election were held today, a new poll claims. The poll also predicts that no two parties would be able to form a coalition government, unless one of them were the Pirate Party.

The latest Gallup pulse of the nation poll shows large changes in support for the various political parties. The Independence Party and Left Green Movement have both attracted significantly more support than the last polls published last week. The Progressive and Pirate Parties both lose support.

The changes in opinion are even more marked when compared with the March poll, which was published at the start of April, RÚV reports. That poll asked respondents’ opinions before the now-infamous Kastljós television program ignited the Panama Papers scandal on Sunday April 3.

Support for the Pirate Party has shrunk since then and now measures below 30 percent for the first time in a whole year; while support for the Independence Party has increased back to what it was about a year ago. Support for the Left Greens has nearly doubled and is now at a level similar to in autumn 2010. The Social Democrats have barely moved in the polls and Bright Future now enjoys slightly more support.

If a vote were held today, pollsters predict that the Pirate Party would gain 16 MPs and the Progressive Party would lose 15.

RÚV got a Gallup polling expert in to analyze the results nationally based on the latest poll. The prediction was that the Pirate Party would become the largest party in parliament, with 19 MPs, up from three today. The Independence Party would lose one MP and be on 18. The Left Greens would gain six new MPs and have 13 in total. The Social Democrats would lose three of their present nine MPs. The Progressive Party would lose 15 MPs and be left with a total of four. And Bright Future would lose half of its current MPs and be left with three.

Judging by these results, it would only be possible to form a two-party coalition government with the participation of the Pirate Party and the Independence Party or the Left Green Movement.

Two-party coalition governments are by far the most common in Iceland; though it is not a requirement, and the party leader appointed by the President to form a government (which would be the leader of the Pirate Party if this poll proved correct) would be able to attempt to form a governing majority with the help of two or more smaller parties.

Sign up for our weekly newsletter

Get news from Iceland, photos, and in-depth stories delivered to your inbox every week!

* indicates required

Subscribe to Iceland Review

In-depth stories and high-quality photography showcasing life in Iceland!