In the latest Gallup poll, the Social Democrats remain the most popular party in the country, drawing 27% support across all constituencies. Meanwhile, support for the People’s Party rose from 6.9% to 8.8% following the resignation of Minister Ásthildur Lóa Þórsdóttir, amid public criticism of the media coverage surrounding the incident.
Social Democrats Lead in Gallup Poll
The Social Democratic Party, which won the most seats in the last parliamentary election and whose leader currently serves as Prime Minister, has maintained a steady lead in Gallup polls since early 2023.
The latest Gallup survey places the party at 27%—the highest level of support across all constituencies nationwide, RÚV reports. Month-over-month gains have further solidified its dominant position in Icelandic politics.
Meanwhile, the Independence Party, historically Iceland’s largest political party, recorded 22.4% support in Gallup’s latest poll—an increase of nearly one percentage point from the previous month.
The bump follows a shift in a separate survey by Maskína, which, for the first time in two years, showed the Independence Party as the country’s leading party. In the Gallup results, however, it continues to trail the Social Democrats.
The Reform Party ranks third with 14.6% support. The Centre Party follows closely with 9.3%, though it has seen a slight decline in support from the previous month.
People’s Party Experiences Surge After Minister’s Resignation
The People’s Party, currently part of the governing coalition alongside the Social Democratic Alliance and the Reform Party, has experienced a notable rise in support following the resignation of Minister Ásthildur Lóa Þórsdóttir. The Minister of Education and Children’s Affairs stepped down after it emerged that, over three decades ago, she had a child with a teenage boy she met in a religious community.
Initial reports from RÚV incorrectly stated she was 22 and he was 15 at the time; it was later clarified that she was 23 and he was 16 when their child was born. The discrepancy sparked criticism of the media coverage, prompting RÚV to issue a correction and apology. Public reaction to the reporting appears to have generated public sympathy—though this cannot be stated with certainty—with support for the People’s Party rising from 6.9% to 8.8% within a week of the resignation.
The Progressive Party currently sits at 5.7% support, while the Socialist Party garners 5.4%—just enough to secure a seat in parliament if the election were held today.
