A new government report finds that the healthcare system will be significantly short of hospital beds by 2040, even with the new hospital opening on Hringbraut in Reykjavík. The Director of the new hospital hopes that the war in Ukraine won’t delay construction.
Demographic changes driving demand
On March 18, the Ministry of Health released a report on the future development of the National University Hospital of Iceland (Landspítali). The report, which was based on data from 2019, was predicated on analytical work done by the management consulting company McKinsey & Company.
Among the report’s main findings was that the need for hospital beds in Iceland is expected to rise by 80% by 2040. This need is driven mainly by demographic changes, with the average age in the country expected to increase by 9% and the total population expected to increase by 18% over the next 18 years.
Given these changes, the healthcare system would have only half of the needed hospital beds by 2040 if no significant actions were taken – even with the opening of the new hospital on Hringbraut (expected to open in 2026).
According to the report, the healthcare system can tackle the shortage by shifting long-term and primary care from Landspítali to “a more (sic) adequate healthcare setting.” The health authorities would need to create the equivalent of ca. 240 bed capacity in home-based, elderly, and rehabilitation-care facilities.
“We can’t lose any time”
In an interview with RÚV yesterday, Runólfur Pálsson, Director of the National University Hospital of Iceland, responded to the report by saying that “time was of the essence.”
“Everybody is familiar with the current facilities as far as hospital beds are concerned,” Páll observed. “Personnel shortage is also a growing concern. We should have acted sooner; the preparation time required for the construction of the new hospital was way too long.”
As noted on RÚV yesterday, the current conditions at Landspítali er still difficult, even with a decline in COVID-19 cases. There is a significant shortage of hospital beds. Every day, almost 30 people must wait in the emergency ward to be admitted into the hospital.
Furthermore, illnesses among staff, whether resulting from COVID-19 or influenza, have also made operations difficult. Many employees of the hospital have also gone on sick leave owing to work-related stress.
Construction, for the most part, “on schedule”
In an interview on Friday, Gunnar Svavarsson, Director of the New University Hospital on Hringbraut, stated that the construction of the new hospital was, for the most part, on schedule. The Russian invasion of Ukraine may cause a delay, however, as the contractors can no longer import steel from Russia.
“We hope there won’t be any delays,” Gunnar said. “As it stands, it’s looking pretty good. Some areas are behind schedule and others that are ahead of schedule.”