According to the latest report of the Confederation of Icelandic Industries, it is expected that in the next three years, there will be 4,360 fewer completed apartments entering the market than the estimated demand requires.
According to the forecast, a total of 2,800 completed apartments will enter the market this year. By comparison, approximately 3,800 completed apartments entered the market in 2020, followed by a decrease to around 3,200 in 2021, and then approximately 2,800 last year.
The recent report also predicts further contraction in 2025 and 2026. Looking further ahead, 2,800 apartments are expected in 2024, but in 2025 and 2026, the number will be no more than 2,000 per year given current trends.
However, given the current rate of population growth, it is estimated that there will be a need for 4,000 completed apartments this year and in the following two years. The accumulated deficit in supply and demand for new properties for the years 2023-2025 is projected to be 4,360 apartments.
Since the national agreement between the government and municipalities regarding the construction of 35,000 apartments over the next ten years was signed in July last year, the cost of average apartments has increased by approximately 7 million ISK [$50,000 USD, €46,000]. Interest rates have also driven housing prices up recently, and additionally, the cost of materials and labor for construction has increased by 2.6 million ISK [$18,000 USD, €17,000] during this period. An expected reduction in the tax incentives for construction will also increase the cost of apartment construction by an average of 1.2-1.5 million ISK in the coming years.
Given current trends, the report concludes that it is unlikely that the government’s target of constructing 35,000 new completed apartments within the period of 2023-2032 will be achieved unless the authorities take decisive action and intervene in the matter.
The recent report does, however, offer several recommendations. First and foremost, they suggest that the government should reconsider the proposed reduction of the tax refund for real estate developments.
The association also suggests that municipalities significantly increase the supply of plots and review the collection of fees before starting developments. “Last but not least, coordinated efforts by the government, municipal associations, the Central Bank, and labour market participants are needed to reduce inflation and inflation expectations, as this will create a foundation for lower interest rates,” the analysis states.