Iceland’s red-green government would receive a combined number of 38 MPs out of 63 in parliament if elections were held today, according to a new opinion poll conducted by Capacent Gallup for Morgunbladid daily and national broadcaster RÚV.
For four weeks in a row, the government parties of the Social Democrats and the Left-Greens have enjoyed sufficient support in polls to remain in power after the elections, although support for the top three parties has been fluctuating.
Head of Iceland’s government, Prime Minister Jóhanna Sigurdardóttir. Photo by Geir Ólafsson.
“To me the most interesting aspect of this poll is that it gives roughly the same picture as polls for the past four weeks, that is, a significant swing to the left and a solid position for the government,” Ólafur Th. Hardarson, professor in political science, told Morgunbladid.
Recently, the Independence Party polled as the largest party in Iceland, but has since been overtaken by the Social Democrats, who are currently polling at 31.2 percent. Support for the Independence Party and the Left-Greens comes in at 26.5 and 24.6 percent, respectively.
If this were the outcome of the elections, the Social Democrats would have 21 MPs in parliament, the Left-Greens 17, the Independence Party 18 and the Progressive Party, polling at 11.3 percent, 7 MPs. Other parties would not get any MPs in parliament.
Such results would enable the formation of a majority coalition with two left-wing parties for the first time in Iceland’s history. “These results are very untraditional and would mark a fundamental change in the distribution of power in Icelandic politics,” Hardarson said.
But he isn’t certain that these will in fact be the results of the upcoming elections on April 25. “The government is obviously still enjoying its honeymoon. There are five weeks until the elections so anything can happen,” Hardarson added.
The current Social Democrat-Left Green coalition was formed after the abrupt mid-term dissolution of the previous Social Democrat-Independence Party coalition.
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