According to a new poll, the coalition government could hold onto power by the narrowest of margins. The Progressive and Independence parties continue to gain in popularity while the Left-Green Movement remains in decline.
Election day tomorrow
The final polls in the lead up to tomorrow’s election suggest a tight race. According to a poll by Morgunblaðið and the market research company MMR, the coalition government could cling to power in the event of a marginal swing (the three parties willing). The Progressive Party, the Independence Party, and the Left-Green Movement would need 32 seats (out of 63) to win a majority. According to the data, the coalition is projected to win only 31 seats; however, the slightest change in outcomes could see the parties gain an additional one or two seats. (A poll conducted by Maskína suggests that the ruling coalition will fall slightly short of a majority.)
The centre-right parties gain while the left declines
As noted by an article in Mbl.is, the MMR pollsuggests that the Progressive, Reform, and Independence parties continue to gain significantly in popularity. The parties on the left, on the other hand, continue to decline; their support appears to have plateaued. The Social Democratic Alliance has lost all of the support that it gained over the past weeks, and the Socialist Party has been in sharp decline, as well. Last week, the Socialists were polling at around 9%, but that support has fallen to approximately 5%.
The People’s Party has gained considerable popularity, and the same holds for the Centre Party, although neither is close to double-digit support.
Forming a coalition could prove difficult
According to projections (predicated on three recent MMR polls), forming a coalition government could prove difficult. Fourteen different coalitions are possible: the Progressive Party is involved in all but one, and the Centre and Independence Parties feature in all four-party coalitions. Only a single three-party coalition could be formed, according to the poll: comprised of the Progressive, Reform, and Independence Parties. As noted by Mbl.is, however, it is unlikely that the parties would risk ruling with such a narrow majority.
Read more about the Parliamentary elections in Iceland here.