The housing market experienced a decline in transactions in July, with a notable drop in new apartments entering the market in August. Despite stable nominal apartment prices, inflation and other factors have led to a decrease in the real value of housing, especially in the capital region, Vísir reports.
Housing market sees a decline in transactions
In July, there was a decrease in residential property agreements from June, dropping from 709 to 615. On average, for the current year, there have been 614 agreements made each month, compared to an average of 825 agreements per month for the first seven months of the previous year.
This data is highlighted in the latest monthly report from the Housing and Construction Authority.
Real value of housing declines
While the nominal value of apartment prices has remained stable, the housing price index in the capital region increased by 0.7% in August. Over the past twelve months, apartment prices in the capital area have risen by 2%, resulting in a real price decrease of 5.3% (assuming that the inflation rate was 7.3% over the past 12 months). The inflation rate in Iceland was measured at 7.7% in August.
In the neighbouring municipalities of the capital region, prices decreased by 1.4% month-over-month, and in other parts of the country, they dropped by 1%. The real price of apartments has decreased by 5.8% in the vicinity of the capital region over the last twelve months but increased by 0.2% in other parts of the country.
Significant drop in new apartments entering the market
In August, 240 newly built apartments were introduced to the national market, a stark contrast to the 398 in July, marking a 39.7% decrease month-over-month. In total, 2,276 new apartments have been listed this year, as per the report.
Currently, approximately 3,200 apartments are available for sale nationwide, with 1,907 located in the capital region. Of these, 622 are brand new.
“In the areas surrounding the capital, 691 apartments are up for sale, 239 of which are new, accounting for about 35% of all available apartments. Elsewhere in the country, 568 apartments are on the market, with 73 being new, representing around 13% of all listed properties.”
A growing population
The report also briefly touches upon population growth, suggesting that if the current trend continues, the nation’s population might reach 400,000 by year-end. This growth will necessitate more housing.
“Last year, nearly 3,000 new apartments were listed during the same period, while the population increased by 11,510 individuals. The average household size in Iceland over the past decade has been 2.53 residents per apartment. However, it’s worth noting that this size varies by region and settlement. Based on this average, over 4,500 new apartments would have been needed last year to accommodate the population increase,” the report states.
A quick breakdown on how inflation erodes the real value of apartments despite nominal prices increasing
Inflation refers to the general increase in prices of goods and services over time. When inflation occurs, each unit of currency buys fewer goods and services, leading to a decrease in the purchasing power of money. In other words, when inflation is high, the value of money decreases.
This means that even if the price of your apartment goes up, money buys less than it did before. In other words, the “real” value of what you own has gone down because your money doesn’t stretch as far.
Furthermore, say the nominal price of an apartment increases by 2%, but inflation for the year is 7%. This means that while your apartment’s price has gone up a little, the cost of everything else (like food, transportation, utilities) has gone up even more. So, in terms of what you can exchange your apartment for, its value has actually decreased.