A new poll indicates that support for the Independence Party is at a historic low of 13.9% support. Prime Minister Bjarni Benediktsson has acknowledged the need for improvement while emphasising the importance of continuing the government’s work.
Polling at an historic low
Since its establishment in 1929, the Independence Party has secured the largest share of votes in every election, with the exception of the 2009 election – in the aftermath of the Financial Crisis – when it was overtaken by the Social Democratic Alliance.
Every leader of the Independence Party has, at some point, also served as Prime Minister, and all of the coalition governments since 2013 have included the Independence Party.
The domination of the Independence Party in Icelandic politics seems to be on a shaky foundation these days, however, with a new Maskína poll recording support for the party at 13.9%, compared to the 15.3% support enjoyed by the Centre Party (which split from the Progressive Party in 2017 due to leadership disputes).
Ólafur Þ. Harðarson, a professor of political science, has expressed concern over the results: “This is the worst outcome the Independence Party has ever received,” Ólafur stated in an interview with the evening news on RÚV yesterday.
Still time for changes
Ólafur noted that while there was still time for changes before the elections next year, it would be a major event in Icelandic political history if the Independence Party received less than 20% of the vote. Ólafur attributed the shift in support from the Independence Party to the Centre Party primarily to their differing policies.
“We saw similar developments in the British parliamentary elections this summer,” Ólafur stated, referencing how the Reform UK party played a significant role in the worst defeat in the history of the British Conservative Party. He pointed out that both the Reform UK party and the Centre Party share a focus on strict immigration policies and a critique of neoliberalism.
Ólafur suggested that the Independence Party needed to find ways to regain its strength. One option, he mentioned, would be for the party to move further to the right, closer to the Centre Party’s stance. However, this shift could result in losing some voters on the party’s left wing and reduce its appeal to centrist voters.
In Ólafur’s view, the Independence Party’s participation in the coalition government is the primary reason for its loss of support.
“It is easy for parties like the Centre Party to attack the traditional right-wing party, accusing it of betrayal, of giving in, and of increasing government spending instead of adhering to its original platform,” Ólafur remarked.
The PM responds
In an interview with Silfrið earlier this week, Prime Minister Bjarni Benediktsson stated that the governing parties had received a strong mandate to form a government. He acknowledged that being in politics is not always easy and that the Independence Party’s standing in the polls indicated a need for improvement.
He noted that a three-party coalition left less room for pure ideology but emphasised that all the governing parties had contributed to the necessary work; people entered politics to “do their best.”
“If my support drops by 3%, should I just throw in the towel and call for elections because things aren’t going well? Or should one continue to do the work, show up the next day, address the issues I believe in, and seek solutions?”
As noted by RÚV, the Independence Party’s Council Assembly (flokksráðsþing) meeting will be held this weekend, followed by the party’s National Congress and eventually the elections. Bjarni stated that the party’s work in the coming months would be crucial. He would consider his own future later.
“As the time approaches, I need to decide whether I have the passion to pursue yet another term, and I also need to ask whether that is the best choice for the party and for myself,” Bjarni observed.
