The Icelandic population could reach 498,000 in 2061 if the census forecast of Statistics Iceland, published last month, is correct. Four factors are taken into account: the current number of Icelanders, migration predictions, and fatality and fertility rate estimations.
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The census forecast allows for divergence. Statistic Iceland’s estimates that population figures will range from a low of 393,000, to a medium of 436,000 and a high of 498,000, Fréttablaðið reports.
The age pattern of the population is expected to change significantly in the period from 2012 to 2061; it is assumed that the percentage of people aged 65 and older will increase while the number of younger people will drop in comparison.
Iceland currently has a population of approximately 320,000 people.